2015 Holiday Shopping Estimates for Central PA

2015 Holiday Shopping Estimates for Central PA
November 2015
Category: Retail

It is that time of year again. The days have gotten shorter, the air has turned a little chillier, and some radio stations have already begun to play our favorite holiday tunes. If you have not started your holiday shopping yet, more than likely you will begin next week on "Black Friday", Small Business Saturday, or Cyber Monday. The National Retail Federation (NRF) is predicting that total retail sales during the 2015 holiday season will reach $630.5 billion across the United States. This represents a 3.7% increase over the 2014 holiday season. Using NRF's facts and figures, we have come up with some of our own estimates for holiday shopping for the Central Pennsylvania region.
retail sales
In Central Pennsylvania, it is estimated that during the 2015 holiday season, consumers are likely to spend $3.3 billion. This represents a 3.0% increase over 2014 and is the second consecutive year that the region has seen an increase in the total dollar volume of sales. While Central PA had increases in 2014 and 2015, the market has still not caught back up to 2008.
Holiday Season Retail Sales by ROCK Commercial
The graph above displays the estimated retail holiday sales by year from 2008 to 2015 in the Central Pennsylvania region. The area has seen an upward trend in holiday retail sales dollars over 2014 and 2015, but is still less than in 2008 before the recession really started to impact the area.

Estimated Holiday Season Retail Sales 2015 from ROCK Commercial
The graph above is a breakdown of the estimated 2015 holiday sales broken down by the nine Central Pennsylvania counties: Adams, Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry, and York

spending by categories
According to the National Retail Federation, the top five categories that people are most likely to spend money on for gifts during the 2015 holiday season include: apparel; books, CDs, DVDs, and video games; toys; jewelry; candy. In these specific categories, Central Pennsylvanians are likely to spend the following amounts:
  • Apparel - $272.3 million (approximately 37.6% will be on women's clothing)
  • Jewelry and Watches - $29.8 million (80.7% on jewelry and 19.3% on watches)
  • Books, CDs, DVDs, Video Games - $12.8 million
  • Toys - $11.1 million 
  • Candy - $10.6 million
gift cards
The NRF is predicting that overall about 56% of holiday shoppers will purchase at least one gift card to be given as a gift during the holiday season. In Central Pennsylvania, that would equate to roughly 616,200 individuals who will purchase at least one gift card / prepaid card to give as a gift. About 23.4% of those shoppers will purchase a gift card between $101-$200.
Gift Card Purchases by Amount from ROCK Commercial 

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